Clinical Psychology Forum 162 - June 2006 The trouble with psychotherapy Paul Moloney The supposedly sound evidence base for the effectiveness of the psychological therapies may be far more questionable than is widely supposed. The term `psychotherapy' refers to a broad family of talking treatments for personal distress which are of proven effectiveness, where some approaches are helpful for certain kinds of personal difficulty, and where accredited professional training will confer particular expertise and skill (see McLeod, 1994). The assumptions contained within this statement are unlikely to meet with dissent from the average person in the street (see Furedi, 2003), and in one form or another constitute the taken for granted world of the psychotherapy professionals themselves. For example, they are endorsed in the training programmes of clinical and counselling psychology (BPS, 2002, 2004), in central government recommendations for the use of psychological therapies in the NHS (DoH, 2001) and most recently in calls by Richard Layard - one of the UK government's key economic consultants - for psychological therapy to be made `available to all', as the main answer to the personal and social malaise which seems to be afflicting us at record levels (see Roth & Stirling, 2006). In contrast to this warmly consensual picture, the enduring reality is that the psychotherapy outcome literature offers precious little support for any of the above notions. This is an observation that surely has some importance for any profession that concerns itself with the understanding and alleviation of personal distress, and yet it is one that seems to have been consistently ignored. In this paper I critically review some of the key psychotherapy outcome literature and ask why it has been so hard for psychologists to acknowledge the poor evidence on therapy outcome. Does therapy work? It is widely recognised that there are numerous and complex difficulties in assessing the effects of psychological therapies, and that one of the best ways of doing this is by means of the randomised placebo control trial (or RPCT). A large number of such investigations have been conducted over the last halfcentury or more, and although the results of these studies have often been extremely variable, so called meta-analyses - in which the findings of large numbers of studies are aggregated and then analysed - suggest that most forms of psychological therapy are at least mildly helpful. Effect sizes upward of half a standard deviation or more are routinely touted. That is to say, undergoing psychological therapy is claimed to reliably lead to significant improvement in the mental health of up to a quarter or above of all recipients (Smith et al., 1980). This compares favourably with other psychiatric treatments that may themselves have a large placebo component, such as antidepressant medication (Breggin & Cohen, 1999). Not surprisingly perhaps, these claims seem to be authorised by the core psychotherapy professions (see Fonagy & Roth, 1996). Yet there are a number of serious methodological problems associated with attempts to assess the effectiveness of counselling or psychotherapy in this way. So much so that at least some academics and practitioners admit that it is hard to decide whether these studies as a whole do or do not support the notion that psychotherapy or counselling is generally helpful (McLeod, 1994). To begin with, the field has long suffered from a bias toward the selective reporting and publication of those studies that show only the desired positive results (Boyle, 2002). Many psychotherapy RPCT trials have included inadequate control groups for comparison purposes, often consisting of individuals who remain on a waiting list or who receive a less credible form of pseudotherapy, delivered with visibly limited commitment by the researchers (Holmes, 2002; Mair, 1992). Conversely, there has been a trend toward excessive reliance upon selected research populations, such as university students or individuals with less severe problems than are typically found in clinical settings. A large proportion of studies have also suffered from systematic participant attrition or selection effects that make the results hard to interpret (Dineen, 1999; Eisner, 2000). Statistically significant differences in outcome between participant groups have often concealed large numbers of people for whom psychotherapy has been ineffective, while assessments of outcome have tended to use abstract numerical measurements and preset diagnostic inventories that leave little room for subjective experience, and which may therefore have limited personal or even clinical meaning (Kline, 1988, and see Tolman, 1994), Aside from these far from minor difficulties, this literature may suffer from an even more pervasive problem. This is the tendency to rely almost exclusively upon the reports of participants - including the client, the clinician and workers from the agencies and institutions that support the therapeutic work - in the absence of any fully independent check upon the treated person's progress in the world outside the consulting room ( Eisner, 2000; Epstein, 1996). This is a serious issue in psychotherapy research, because of the range of powerful social and interpersonal influences are likely to be in play, in what is in many ways a unique situation in our culture: part confessional, part ritual of healing and social affirmation, and m u c h else besides (Frank & Frank, 1991). On this basis, it may be worth discussing the question of bias in client reports in more detail. To start at the most basic level, both c l i e n t and clinician will from the outset usually desire the same broad result: an improvement improvement in the former's mental health, whether this is defined as happiness, adjustment or relative freedom from distress. The patient's cooperation towards this aim will be engaged through the practitioner's efforts to establish a therapeutic relationship, which implicitly entrains the client into the given therapeutic model. For instance, many humanist therapists seek to build a relationship with their client that is intense and deep enough to exceed most ordinary professional-layperson encounters (e.g. Mearns, 1994). Other practitioners may emphasise the complexities of the psychodynamic transference relationship (e.g. Casement, 1995) or the alleged scientific and technical authority for what they do - as in cognitive behavioural therapy (e.g. Hawton et al., 1989). As a result, the client will likely have invested a great deal of trust and hope in the person of the practitioner. All the more so, perhaps, for having disclosed worries and fears hitherto shared with few others. Both parties may also share potent, culturally sanctioned beliefs, which equate failure to benefit from therapy with the client's wilful rescinding of the inner strength or discipline needed to overcome adversity (Cushman, 1995). For the latter, these factors may combine to render any admission of failure in the therapeutic process a sign of personal inadequacy and a source of anxiety about earning the tacit disapproval of their therapist. It therefore seems reasonable to think that such admissions of disappointment might be avoided or denied by many clients: even - or perhaps especially - to themselves (Epstein, 2006; Kline, 1988). And indeed at least some clinicians felt that they have observed this process in action (Kelly, 2000). The key question, of course, is to what extent the claims for psychotherapy effectiveness might be distorted by this shaping of client self-report. As William Epstein points out, the scale of this problem becomes apparent when estimates of psychotherapy effect size are compared with estimates of so-called `demand characteristics'. These are the expectations that researchers can unconsciously convey to participants in laboratory based psychological experiments. In the absence of thorough controls such demand factors can typically account for between 0.70 and 1.0 standard deviation of the reported effect sizes. This is for situations that are relatively impersonal and short term in comparison to most psychotherapeutic interventions, and in which the participants might therefore be expected to have a much lower stake in the final outcome (see Rosenthal & Rubin, 1978). Nevertheless, Epstein notes that these estimates of researcher influences at least equal (and often surpass) the average gains reported for psychotherapy, even for the bettercontrolled studies. This is obviously a basic issue for the psychotherapy field, where therapist expectations of client improvement are inbuilt for virtually every approach. Yet rather than getting to grips with these findings, the whole area seems instead to have continued to rely upon the reports of clients (and other closely involved parties) in the absence of any form of investigation that is external to the therapeutic process or the organisations that sponsor it. The result being that researcher expectancy cues are inseparable from virtually all of the RPCT research to date, and may confound it. In the end, the clear possibility remains that most of the claimed benefits of psychotherapy might reside in placebo effects (Epstein, 2006, 1996). This last prospect is strongly underscored by four further lines of evidence. These are, first, that, aside from (decidedly) modest indications for the greater efficacy of behavioural approaches in relation to phobias, the comparative research literature seems to offer little support for the idea that any one treatment is more effective than another (Assay & Lambert, 1999). This observation seems hard to reconcile with the confident assertions of therapeutic potency and specificity that are often trumpeted by adherents of the mainstream therapies (Hansen et al., 2003). Yet, within the field, `there is tremendous resistance to accepting this finding as a legitimate one' (Bergin & Garfield, 1994, p.822). Second, the available evidence suggests that, rather than specific techniques, a range of so-called `non-specific' factors may account for most of the beneficial effects of psychological treatments. Among these features, the client's wider life circumstances and the quality of the therapeutic relationship seem to be the most important by far (Bohart, 2000; Bergin & Garfield, 1994; Mahrer, 1998). Third, comparisons of qualified practitioners with amateurs who have received no specific training in therapeutic models or methods suggest that there are few real differences between them in effectiveness, however this is measured. This is a surprisingly robust (though, again, seldom acknowledged) finding, which is supported by 39 separate research studies conducted over more than a decade (Dawes, 1994; Stivers, 1999). Fourth, a reliable trend within the psychotherapy outcome literature is that the closer the study comes to real life clinical settings, then the less significant the outcomes tend to be (Epstein, 1996). For instance, the recent American multi-centre research trial known as the `Fort Bragg demonstration project' involved the analysis of the treatment of 42,000 clients (who were largely children) over a span of five years. Yet the results were disappointing in that there was no evidence that psychological therapy led to improvement in the lives of these recipients, many of whom were struggling with significant social adversities. As the clinical psychologist Tana Dineen (1999, p.128) observes : these results should raise serious doubts about some current clinical beliefs about the effectiveness of psychological services . there is scant evidence of its effectiveness in real life settings. What then can we conclude about the effectiveness of psychotherapy? Overall, the findings examined in this paper highlight the overwhelming import of `nonspecific effects' in psychological treatment on the one hand, and of the frequently flawed nature of RPCT methodology, on the other. None of which seems to be very encouraging for the official view of psychological therapy as a well-validated body of effective clinical treatments. Instead of engagement, however, the tendency inside the main ther apeutic professions seems to have been to ignore or downplay these considerations (see Howard, 2005), and it therefore seems worth asking why this is so. Personal conviction is doubtless one of the reasons. Within the confines of the consulting room both therapists and their clients will often observe that the latter seem to undergo a significant relief from their distress. As already indicated, this is one instance where immediate personal experience can be compelling but also highly deceptive, especially when backed up by prevalent cultural myths. Another element in this situation may be the reliance of the field upon large-scale meta-analytic studies, a trend that is reinforced by the accumulating NICE guidelines on psychotherapeutic practice in the NHS. Although officially presented as both definitive and authoritative (see for example, NICE, 2003) such methods are notoriously prone to generating misleading or inconclusive data, as the previous discussion has shown. The meta-analytic approach simply fails to capture the way in which knowledge is developed and validated within the wider scientific community. When pursued in good faith, scientific knowledge emerges from a craft-like exploration and sifting of ideas against the limits of personal experience and of reasoned reflection - and not from managerial directives or the behest of professional interest groups, operating under the guise of impersonal authority (Charlton, 2000; and see Polanyi, 1955). The significance of all this becomes clearer when set against the evidence that - contrary to the claims of Layard - our current social arrangements may continue to underpin much of the distress that brings people to the consulting room (see, for example, Perelman, 2005; Vail et al., 1999; Wilkinson, 1996). In this situation, the interests of the therapeutic professions are likely to dovetail only too well with those of a political order that is intent upon convincing its citizens that their private troubles have little connection with events in the public realm. 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