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C F S  - Information International     
 

Prognosis  of  CFS/ FM

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Life Expectancy

All-cause mortality was not increased according to a CDC-study on 1200 fatigued patients followed up to14 years,

smith.etal.06.txt, smith.etal06.txt, smith.etal06.pdf. 

 

Jason et al. studied causes of death in 166 deceased CFS patients. They found the 3 most prevalent causes of death were heart failure, suicide, and cancer, accounting for 59.6% of all deaths, jason.etal06.txt, jason.etal.06.txt, jason.etal06.pdf. 

 

The prognosis for the most sick CFS patients is not encouraging,  Hill et al., 1999, and  Tiersky et al., 2001.  A pilot study on risk factors for severe CFS, wernham.etal05.txt.

 

Only recently has CFS been given as an official cause of death,  news.cfs.death06.txt.

 

Anecdotal connection of CFS with cancer has not been confirmed,  Levine et al., 2000.  Patients with suspected FM  - but not with confirmed FM – had higher risk of cancer, dreyer.etal07.txt.

 

 

The fluctuatious nature

The waxing and waning of symptoms has given rise to false optimism in connection with dubious treatments. The relevance of phase theory in CFS is discussed,  Jason et al., 2003.  One study underscores the significance of fluctuation, nisenbaum.etal03.txt,  nisenbaum.etal03.pdf. 
 

Prognosis studies

Complete recovery from CFS was found to be rare in this 9 year follow-up. Patients with less severe illness at the initial clinic visit were more likely to have a positive prognosis,  Pheley et al., 1999.  Improvement in symptoms is more likely, cairns.hotopf05.txt, cairns.hotopf05.pdf.

 

Long-term predictors of outcome in fatigued employees: a 4-year follow-up study, leone.etal06.txt, leone.etal.06.txt, leone.etal06.pdf.  A review of studies on CFS and work, taylor,kielhofner05.txt, taylor,kielhofner05.pdf.

 

In my own 5-year follow-up study of Danish CFS patients a recovery rate of 6% was found, andersen.etal04.txt,  andersen.etal04.pdf. In our new 9-year follow-up study of the same patients, we found similar results, andersen.etal07.txt, andersen.etal07.pdf.

 

A 10-year follow-up of the epidemic in Lake Tahoo (US) concluded that 15% of those diagnosed with CFS had recovered,  Strickland et al., 2001.  One study demonstrated worsening of cognitive symptoms over time,  friedberg.etal00.txt,  another demonstrated CFS-symptoms to be continuously present for years,  Nisenbaum et al., 2000.  A Dutch study found CFS to stay chronic in most patients if symptoms have lasted more than 15 months,  van der Werf et al., 2002.  A Canadian article on CFS in sports states that CFS is chronic and should be avoided by careful monitoring of exercise,  Shephard, 2001.

Dr. Jason's group in Chicago published some interesting information on prognosis relating to the first wave of fatigue,  Taylor et al., 2002,   Taylor et al., 2002 (pdf).  A (small) Japanese study divided CFS patients into infectious versus non-infectious cases, finding prognosis better for infectious cases,  Masuda et al., 2002 (short),   Masuda et al., 2002 (pdf).

The University of Texas has published a study on the prognosis of unexplained fatigue, schmaling.etal03.txt,  schmaling.etal03.pdf.  Prediction of long term fatigue following Mononucleosis was impossible, candy.etal03.pdf, with a comment, white.07.txt.

Development of CFS in severely fatigued employees:  predictors of outcome in the Maastricht cohort study, huibers.etal04.txt,  huibers.etal04.pdf.  Recovering from persistent fatigue and work resumption seem to result from different underlying processes and do not necessarily fall together, huibers.etal.04.txt, huibers.etal.04.pdf.

The prognosis of different fatigue diagnostic labels, hamilton.etal05.txt, hamilton.etal05.pdf.

Predictors of outcome following treatment for chronic fatigue was more difficult to define than expected by these psychiatrists,  darbishire.etal05.txt, darbishire.etal05.pdf.

Physical health does not deteriorate with time, matthews.komaroff07.txt, matthews.komaroff07.pdf.

Studies on FM

One study found that FM patients were doing fairly well after 6 - 8 years time,  Mengshoel & Haugen, 2001.  A 2002-study had contacted patients 6 years after first contact, and found little improvement, but better coping,  Baumgartner et al., 2002.  A 2003-study found patients "fairly well" after 3 years,  Fitzcharles et al., 2003.  Posttraumatic FM was still present 3 years after the injury in 60% of the patients,  Neuman et al., 2003.
 

Prognosis adolescent CFS

The respected Dr. Bell published a 13 year follow-up study on adolescents, who as children were diagnosed with CFS.  Their results were somewhat encouraging compared to adult CFS:  Eighty percent of the adolescents were better or much better over time, and only 20% were the same or worse,  Bell et al., 2001,   Bell et al., 2001 (pdf).  Review articles also conclude that adolescent ME/CFS may not be so chronic after all,  Krilov & Fisher, 2002., editorial: smith04.txt. 

 

Adolescents with less than 6 months fatigue have better outcome, gill.etal04.txt, gill.etal04.pdf. No association between maternal or child psychological distress, academic ability, parental illness, atopy, or birth order and increasing risk of lifetime CFS/ME. Sedentary behavior increased the risk, viner.hotopf04.txt, viner.hotopf04.pdf. Using the milder Oxford criteria: symptom persistence and school absenteeism after 3 years: sankey.etal06.txt.  Likwise alexithymia in adolescents is of no significance, van.de.putte.etal07.txt, van.de.putte.etal.07.txt, van.de.putte.etal07.pdf.
 


 
 

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Mette Marie Andersen, MD